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Forecast of Future Revenue


The Congressional Budget Office publishes regular forecasts of future federal government revenue.

CBO: Long-term Outlook for Federal Revenue

Federal revenue will increase from 16.5 percent to 19 percent of GDP in the early 2040s.

CBO Estimate - Federal Revenue

Chart 3.61: CBO Estimate - Federal Revenue

The Congressional Budget Office Long-term Budget Outlook released in September 2020 projects the trends in federal revenue out to 2050.

According to the CBO federal revenue will increase in the next 30 years from 16 percent of GDP in FY 2020 to nearly 19 percent of GDP at the end of the 2040s.


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Revenue Data Sources

Revenue data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of revenue data sources here.

Federal revenue data begins in 1792.

State and local revenue data begins in 1820.

State and local revenue data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Data Sources for 2026:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

Blog

US, State Population Update for 2025

On January 21, 2026 the US Census Bureau released its US national and state population estimates for July 1, 2025.  On February 7, 2026 usgovernmentspending.com updated its US and state population data as follows:

usgovernmentspending.com uses population data in computing per capita spending and revenue data. You can see per capita spending data in a chart here, and in a table of spending here.

You can check the data update schedule here.

Medicaid Update for FY2024
On January 14, 2026, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) published its annual report on  ...

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2025
On March 27, 2025 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2025, which projects federal spendin ...

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