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a usgovernmentrevenue.com briefing:
Forecast of Future Revenue
The Congressional Budget Office publishes regular forecasts of future federal government revenue.
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See FEDERAL BUDGET breakdown and estimated vs. actual.
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Check STATE revenue: CA NY TX FL and compare.
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Revenue Data Sources
Revenue data is from official government sources.
- Federal revenue data since 1962 comes from the president’s budget.
- All other revenue data comes from the US Census Bureau.
Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.
Detailed table of revenue data sources here.
Federal revenue data begins in 1792.
State and local revenue data begins in 1820.
State and local revenue data for individual states begins in 1957.
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Spending 101
Take a course in government spending:
Spending |
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Data Sources for 2027:
GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years
> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.
Blog
US Budget Deficit, Receipts, Outlays for FY 2026
On October 15, 2026, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xlsx) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2025 ending September 30, 2026, was $1,99 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2026 federal budget published in February 2025:
| Federal Finances FY 2026 Outcomes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget billions | Outcome billions | ||
| Receipts | $5,873 | $5,403 | |
| Outlays | $7,419 | $7,396 | |
| Deficit | $1,547 | $1,993 | |
The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2026 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2025. usdgovernmentspending.com obtains the data for outlays and receipts from apis at fiscaldata.treasury.gov.
This MTS report on FY 2026 actuals is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2025 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY28 budget in February 2027. Until then usgovernmentspending.com estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2026 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY26 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.
On August 7, 2026 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2024 using the new Census Bureau ...
On July 2, 2026 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2024 using the new Census Bureau S ...
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