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Forecast of Future Revenue


The Congressional Budget Office publishes regular forecasts of future federal government revenue.

CBO: Long-term Outlook for Federal Revenue

Federal revenue will increase from 16.5 percent to 19 percent of GDP in the early 2040s.

CBO Estimate - Federal Revenue

Chart 3.61: CBO Estimate - Federal Revenue

The Congressional Budget Office Long-term Budget Outlook released in September 2020 projects the trends in federal revenue out to 2050.

According to the CBO federal revenue will increase in the next 30 years from 16 percent of GDP in FY 2020 to nearly 19 percent of GDP at the end of the 2040s.


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Revenue Data Sources

Revenue data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of revenue data sources here.

Federal revenue data begins in 1792.

State and local revenue data begins in 1820.

State and local revenue data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Data Sources for 2026:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

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Gross State Product for 2025

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2025 on April 9, 2026.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2025 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2027 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

Process:

  1. Click on link.
  2. Click on "Interactive Data" link
  3. Click on "Interactive Tables: GDP by State" link
  4. Click on "Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by State"
  5. Click on "Summary Tables for GDP, personal income, and related data."
  6. Click on "SASUMMARY"
  7. Area: Select "All Areas"
  8. Statistic: Select "Real GDP..." and "Gross domestic product (GDP)"
  9. Click on Next Step button
  10. Time Period: Select "All Years"
  11. Click on Next Step button
  12. Click on Download button
  13. Select CSV 
Federal Budget for FY27 Released
On April 4, 2026, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the Public Budget Database in the Budget of the United ...

US GDP for 2025 Released
On March 15, 2026 usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis ...

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