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Forecast of Future Revenue


The Congressional Budget Office publishes regular forecasts of future federal government revenue.

CBO: Long-term Outlook for Federal Revenue

Federal revenue will increase from 16.5 percent to 19 percent of GDP in the early 2040s.

CBO Estimate - Federal Revenue

Chart 3.61: CBO Estimate - Federal Revenue

The Congressional Budget Office Long-term Budget Outlook released in September 2020 projects the trends in federal revenue out to 2050.

According to the CBO federal revenue will increase in the next 30 years from 16 percent of GDP in FY 2020 to nearly 19 percent of GDP at the end of the 2040s.


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Revenue Data Sources

Revenue data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of revenue data sources here.

Federal revenue data begins in 1792.

State and local revenue data begins in 1820.

State and local revenue data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Data Sources for 2025:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 2.1, 2.4, 2.5, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported revenue forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

Blog

State and Local Finances for 2023

On September 11, 2025 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2023 using the new Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances summaries for FY 2023 released on July 31, 2025.  (See also Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances). The release includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole and the 50 individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2023 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau. In addition, the Census Bureau published updated tables for 2021 and 2022.

We have updated the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2024-30 as indicated in our "guesstimate" blog entries.

We have also updated data for individual local government units with data for 2023. 

Beginning in 2022 the Census Bureau has changed the value for Line 56 Direct Expenditure and Line 7 General Revenue from own sources, as follows:

We have decided to end our publication of non-insurance trust cash and security holdings.

However, to keep the time series at usgovernmentspending.com consistent, we have decided to add insurance-trust values back into Line 56 and Line 7 values. 

State Spending for 2023
In March 2025 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2023 here and  ...

Agency Debt Update for 2024
On June 24, 2025, usgovernmentspending.com updated its data for agency debt from the Federal Reserve Board database. Data is now available for the period 1945-2024. You can see our Agency Debt page ...

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