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What is the Deficit?

deficit (surplus) - The amount by which outlays exceed receipts in a given fiscal period. (A surplus would be the amount by which receipts exceed outlays.) US Senate Glossary

In FY 2023 the federal deficit was $1.69 trillion. But the gross federal debt increased by $2.15 trillion. Here is why.

This year, FY 2024, the federal government in its latest budget has estimated that the deficit will be $1.86 trillion.

Here is the federal deficit by year for the last decade:

Federal Deficits in trillions
2014201520162017201820192020202120222023 
$0.49$0.44$0.58$0.66$0.78$0.98$3.13$2.78$1.38$1.69 

Click for deficits from 1960 to present.

See also deficit as percent of GDP.

 

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Federal Deficit Analysis  

 

Recent US Federal Deficits by Year

Recent US Federal Deficits

Chart D.01f: Recent US Federal Deficits

The Federal Deficit exploded in the late 2000s from $0.16 trillion in 2007 to $1.41 trillion in 2009 including over $700 billion in bank bailouts under the TARP program.

During the recovery from the Great Recession federal deficits declined down to $0.44 trillion in 2015, and then started increasing. In the COVID crisis of 2020 the federal deficit ballooned to $3.13 trillion. In FY2023 the federal deficit was $1.69 trillion.

Budgeted US Federal Deficits

Budgeted US Federal Deficits

Chart D.02f: Budgeted US Federal Deficits

The FY25 federal budget estimates budget deficits out to 2029. It forecasts a deficit in 2024 of $1.86 trillion, and $1.5 trillion by 2029.


Make Custom Deficit Chart  •  Download Deficit Data  •  Debt Deficit History

Spending Analyses:

Debt, Deficit Analyses:

Numbers — Charts:

But there’s more

The federal debt increases each year by more than the deficit. For FY 2024 the federal budget estimates that the federal debt will increase by about $2.12 trillion. That’s about $0.26 trillion more than the official “deficit.” See Federal Debt.

But there’s more. There is the increase in in the “agency debt” of government-sponsored enterprises like the Federal National Mortgage Association. And there is the implied deficit from unfunded liabilities like Social Security and Medicare. See chart of latest Long-term Budget Outlook from the Congressional Budget Office.

Now you are ready to explore. Click here for the basics on the national debt and deficits. Click here for a look at overall government spending; click here for a look at the federal budget by function. And there is no better place to get up to speed than Spending 101’s online course on Federal Debt.

US Federal Deficits in the 20th Century

Federal Deficits since 1900

Chart D.03f: Federal Deficits since 1900

The two major peaks of the federal deficit in the 20th century occurred during World War I and World War II.

Deficits increased steadily from the 1960s through the early 1990s, and then declined rapidly for the remainder of the 1990s.

Federal deficits increased in the early 2000s, and went over 10 percent of GDP in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008.

In the recovery from the Crash of 2008 deficits slowly reduced to 3 percent of GDP in 2015 and then started increasing again.

In the COVID crisis of 2020 the federal deficit ballooned to over 15 percent of GDP.

US Federal Deficits since the Founding

Federal Deficit since Founding

Chart D.04f: Federal Deficit since Founding

The United States government did not always run a deficit. In the 19th century the federal government typically only ran deficits during wartime or during financial crises. The government ran a deficit of 2 percent of GDP at the end of the war of 1812, and through the decade after the Panic of 1837 and culminating in the US - Mexican War of 1846-48. It ran a deficit of over 7 percent of GDP in the Civil War; and ran a deficit in the depressed 1890s.
In the 20th century the US ran a deficit during World War I, the Great Depression, World War II, and in almost all years since 1960, during peace and war.

CBO Forecast for Federal Deficit

CBO Forecast for Federal Deficit

Chart D.05f: CBO Forecast for Federal Deficit

According to the latest forecast from the Congressional Budget Office, the federal deficit will grow from 4.2 percent of GDP in 2022 to 13 percent of GDP by 2051.

Suggested Video: What is the Deficit?

Top Debt Requests:

Find DEFICIT stats and history.

US BUDGET overview and pie chart.

Find NATIONAL DEBT today.

See FEDERAL BUDGET breakdown and estimated vs. actual.

See BAR CHARTS of debt, debt.

Check STATE debt: CA NY TX FL and compare.

See DEBT ANALYSIS briefing.

See DEBT HISTORY briefing.

Take a COURSE at Spending 101.

Make your own CUSTOM CHART.

Debt Data Sources

Debt data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of debt data sources here.

Federal debt data begins in 1792.

State and local debt data begins in 1820.

State and local debt data for individual states begins in 1957.


Spending 101 Courses

Spending | Federal Debt | Revenue | Defense | Welfare | Healthcare | Education
Debt History | Entitlements | Deficits | State Spending | State Taxes | State Debt


There’s More...

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Where you go to get facts about government.

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Gross Federal Debt

Debt Now:  $34,573,199,545,841.43
Debt 2/2020:$23,409,959,150,243.63

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Data Sources for 2019_2029:

Sources for 2019:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

Sources for 2029:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

Blog

Federal Budget for FY25 Released

On March 11, 2024, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the Public Budget Database in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2025

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2024 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2024 budget a year ago in Winter 2023.

Federal Budget Changes for 2024
$ billionEstimate for 2024
in FY2024 Budget
Estimate for 2024
in FY2025 Budget
Change
Federal Outlays$6,371.8$6,940.9 +$569.1
Federal Receipts$4,802.5$5,081.6+$279.1
Federal Deficit$1,569.4$1,859.4+$290.0

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2029 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 11, 2024.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2029 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 11, 2024. 

Agency Debt Update for 2023
On March 11, 2024, usgovernmentspending.com updated its data for agency debt from the Federal Reserve Board database. Data is now available for the period 1945-2023. You can see our Agency Debt pag ...

US GDP for 2023 Updated
On January 19, 2024 usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, ...

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